Although Michigan health officials tout the state’s health restrictions for lowering the number of COVID-19 cases, an analysis by Bridge Michigan said the extent of the correlation is questionable.
The analysis compared the COVID-19 rates in Michigan to those in California and Tennessee, both of which have much higher infection rates than Michigan.
Tennessee has no mask mandate and no ban on indoor dining or bars. California has all three, and yet hospitals in both states are overwhelmed with coronavirus patients.
The assertion that restrictions are reducing COVID-19 cases isn't proven.
“That’s the million-dollar question,” Lindsey Leininger, clinical professor of business administration at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth College, told Bridge Michigan. “To attribute cause and effect is a tough thing to do.”
In particular, restrictions on restaurants are up for debate, considering the case of two states, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Minnesota has banned indoor dining while Wisconsin hasn’t, and yet the two states have similar COVID-19 caseloads.
That's because many people have voluntarily chosen to limit their public exposure during the pandemic with or without government mandates, including avoiding restaurants and ordering groceries online, Bridge Michigan said.
The effectiveness of government mask mandates is also questionable.
“For about a month, the Dakotas — both sparsely populated, largely rural states — have had some of the highest case rates of the pandemic,” Bridge Michigan reported. “North Dakota has a mask mandate, but South Dakota does not.”
But while there are questions about whether restrictions work on reducing the spread of the virus, there is little doubt about the effect they have on the state’s economy.
States with tougher restrictions usually have higher unemployment rates than those with lighter restrictions, said Don Grimes, an economist and senior research specialist at the University of Michigan.
It could be years before we know the true impact of government COVID-19 restrictions, according to Leininger.
It will take detailed analysis of cell phone data, infection rates, state- and county-level restrictions and economic indicators to determine which restrictions had the most benefit. “These are the kinds of questions we’ll be able to answer later,” Leininger told Bridge Michigan.
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