SE Grand Rapids News

With the decision by U.S. Rep. Justin Amash, a Libertarian, not to run to retain his seat representing Michigan’s 3rd Congressional District, newcomer candidates Peter Meijer, the Republican, and Hillary Scholten, the Democrat, are vying for Amash’s seat.

Amash had represented the district as a Republican from 2011 through 2019, when he left the party after being the only Republican to vote in favor of impeaching President Donald Trump, according to Conservative Intel. Amash announced his presidential candidacy as a Libertarian, but after pulling out of that race, he did not attempt to run to retain his seat in Congress.

While the 3rd Congressional District has not had a Democratic representation since the Nixon era, the race between Meijer and Scholten is looking close, according to Conservative Intel. The fact that Scholten’s campaign has been able to outspend Meijer’s two-to-one may be a factor.

With more of residents polled in the district self-identifying as Democrats than in previous years, polling organization Strategic National released two polls for the congressional race, one weighted by party affiliation and one not, according to Conservative Intel. With weighting, the poll gives a +4 advantage to the Republican ticket, but without weighting, a "floating model" poll gives a +4 advantage to the Democratic ticket.

Under the weighted model, Meijer and Scholten both are polling at 46%, according to Conservative Intel. The floating model, however, has Scholten with a strong lead, taking 50% over Meijer’s 42%.

At the same time, both versions of the poll have Scholten with a stronger public image than Meijer, with favorable opinions of her showing a greater margin over unfavorable opinions than for Meijer, according to Conservative Intel.

Strategic National noted that the two-to-one spending advantage in television ads by Scholten may have convinced district voters that she is a moderate Democrat, while at the same time painting Meijer as a “rich kid” with billionaire parents.